Interest Rate Outlook
| Interest Rates | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
| Fed Funds Target Rate | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| 3-mth T-Bill Rate | 4.68 | 5.17 | 5.32 | 5.20 | 5.25 | 5.30 | 4.90 | 4.40 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 2.65 |
| 2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 4.06 | 4.87 | 5.03 | 4.23 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.10 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| 5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 3.60 | 4.13 | 4.60 | 3.84 | 4.20 | 4.05 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| 10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 3.48 | 3.81 | 4.59 | 3.88 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.45 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| 30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 3.67 | 3.85 | 4.73 | 4.03 | 4.35 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| 10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | -0.58 | -1.06 | -0.44 | -0.35 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.05 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
Foreign Exchange Outlook
| Currency | Exchange Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | ||
| Euro | USD per EUR | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| UK Pound | USD per GBP | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Australian Dollar | USD per AUD | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| NZ Dollar | USD per NZD | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Canadian Dollar | CAD per USD | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Swiss Franc | CHF per USD | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Japanese Yen | JPY per USD | 133 | 144 | 149 | 141 | 145 | 144 | 143 | 142 | 141 | 140 | 138 | 137 |
| Chinese Renminbi | CNY per USD | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
Commodity Price Outlook
| Commodity | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) | 76 | 74 | 82 | 78 | 76 | 82 | 82 | 80 | 79 | 78 | 78 | 77 |
| Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) | 2.66 | 2.16 | 2.59 | 2.75 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Gold ($US/troy oz.) | 1889 | 1977 | 1928 | 1977 | 2050 | 2175 | 2075 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Silver ($US/troy oz.) | 22.56 | 24.19 | 23.58 | 23.27 | 23.25 | 25.00 | 24.50 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 23.50 | 23.50 |
| Copper (cents/lb) | 405 | 384 | 379 | 371 | 380 | 395 | 400 | 400 | 395 | 395 | 390 | 390 |
| Nickel ($US/lb) | 11.81 | 10.13 | 9.23 | 7.81 | 7.60 | 7.80 | 8.00 | 8.20 | 8.30 | 8.30 | 8.30 | 8.30 |
| Aluminum (cents/lb) | 109 | 103 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 104 | 104 | 106 | 106 | 108 | 108 |
| Wheat ($US/bu) | 7.32 | 6.50 | 5.76 | 5.89 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
Global Stock Markets
| Major Market Indexes | Price | 30-Day | YTD | 52-Week | 52-Week |
| Jan-24 | % Chg. | % Chg. | High | Low | |
| S&P 500 | 4,892 | 2.9 | 27.4 | 4,892 | 3,856 |
| DAX | 16,877 | 1.0 | 21.2 | 16,877 | 14,687 |
| FTSE 100 | 7,527 | -2.2 | 1.0 | 8,014 | 7,257 |
| Nikkei | 36,226 | 9.2 | 38.8 | 36,547 | 26,906 |
| MSCI AC World Index* | 727 | 0.9 | 20.2 | 729 | 612 |
U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
| Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 23 | 24F | 25F | |
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Durable Goods | 14.0 | -0.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Business Investment | 5.7 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 30.3 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -0.9 | 5.1 | -1.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Residential Investment | -5.3 | -2.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 5.8 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | -10.6 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 6.2 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 3.8 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Exports | 6.8 | -9.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Imports | 1.3 | -7.6 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | -1.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | 27.2 | 14.9 | 77.8 | 66.3 | 61.6 | 50.0 | 31.2 | 31.6 | 36.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.6 | 46.6 | 43.6 | 40.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -858 | -867 | -801 | -820 | -895 | -912 | -927 | -958 | -971 | -994 | -1007 | -1013 | -837 | -923 | -996 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.2 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
| Including IVA&CCA | -9.9 | 0.9 | 14.4 | 3.3 | 7.4 | -0.1 | -6.6 | -1.8 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 4.7 |
| % of GDP | 11.8 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 11.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Nominal GDP | 6.3 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Labor Force | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Employment | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 899 | 753 | 667 | 617 | 735 | 534 | 145 | 21 | 132 | 220 | 238 | 239 | 3534 | 2198 | 697 | 2936 | 1435 | 829 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 15.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | -0.7 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | ||
| Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change) | |||||
| G7 (42.4%)* | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | |
| U.S. | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | |
| Japan | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | |
| Euro Area | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | |
| Germany | 1.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | |
| France | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |
| Italy | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | |
| Canada | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change) | |||||
| G7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | |
| U.S. | 8.0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | |
| Japan | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | |
| Euro Area | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| Germany | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | |
| France | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | |
| Italy | 8.7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | |
| United Kingdom | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | |
| Canada | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | |
| Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages) | |||||
| U.S. | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | |
| Japan | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | |
| Euro Area | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | |
| Germany | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.7 | |
| France | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | |
| Italy | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 8.2 | |
| United Kingdom | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | |
| Canada | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 | |
Global Economic Outlook.
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
| 2022 Share* | Forecast | |||
| Real GDP | (%) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F |
| World | 100.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| North America | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| United States | 15.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Canada | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Mexico | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| European Union (EU-27) | 14.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Euro Area (EU-20) | 12.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 3.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| France | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Italy | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Other EU Members | 2.8 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| United Kingdom | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Asia | 45.0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Japan | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Asian NIC's | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Hong Kong | 0.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Korea | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Singapore | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Taiwan | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Russia | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Australia & New Zealand | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Emerging Asia | 32.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| ASEAN-5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| China | 18.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| India** | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Central/South America | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Brazil | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Other Emerging Markets | 12.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Other Advanced | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
| Economic Indicator | Annual Average | Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter | ||||||||||||
| 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | |
| Real GDP | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Durable Goods | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Business Investment | 4.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 13.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Residential Investment | -10.6 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Exports | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Imports | -1.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Change in Private | ||||||||||||||
| Inventories | 46.6 | 43.6 | 40.3 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Final Sales | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -837 | -923 | -996 | -1024 | -1027 | -1005 | -972 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| % of GDP | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -2.8 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pre-Tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||
| Including IVA&CCA | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| % of GDP | 11.8 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Nominal GDP | 6.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Labor Force | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Employment | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 3,534 | 2,198 | 697 | 950 | 955 | 955 | 955 | 2,936 | 1,435 | 829 | 954 | 955 | 955 | 955 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 8.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 4.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.47 | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.53 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
| Economic Indicator | Annual Average | 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter | ||||||||||||
| 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | |
| Real GDP | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Durable Goods | 2.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Business Investment | -0.6 | -1.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -2.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 2.6 | -1.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | -3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -3.8 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -1.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Residential Investment | -10.2 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | -3.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Exports | 5.7 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Imports | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Change in Non-Farm | ||||||||||||||
| Inventories (2012 $Bn) | 35.3 | 22.1 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 17.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| International Current | ||||||||||||||
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -17.8 | -4.0 | -10.6 | -13.1 | -13.6 | -13.3 | -12.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-Tax Corp. Profits | -18.1 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -9.7 | -0.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| % of GDP | 12.8 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Nominal GDP | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Labour Force | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Employment | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 475 | 216 | 137 | 280 | 250 | 185 | 177 | 461 | 69 | 253 | 281 | 217 | 181 | 174 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| CPIX (y/y) ** | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| BoC Inflation (y/y) *** | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts ('000s) | 242 | 230 | 232 | 246 | 249 | 249 | 249 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Home Prices (y/y) | -3.0 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Real GDP / Worker (y/y) | -1.3 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Long-Term Interest Rates
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
| Interest Rates | Annual Average | End of Period | ||||||||||||
| 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | |
| U.S. FIXED INCOME | ||||||||||||||
| Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* | 5.30 | 5.25 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 5.50 | 4.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| 3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) | 5.10 | 4.95 | 3.20 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 5.20 | 4.40 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 |
| 2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.55 | 4.25 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 4.23 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| 5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.05 | 3.90 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 3.84 | 3.50 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| 10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.88 | 3.65 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| 10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) | -0.60 | -0.30 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | -0.35 | -0.15 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| CANADIAN FIXED INCOME | ||||||||||||||
| Overnight Target Rate (%) | 4.80 | 4.65 | 2.80 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) | 4.85 | 4.45 | 2.65 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 5.04 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.25 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.88 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| 5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.55 | 3.25 | 2.65 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.17 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| 10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.10 | 3.05 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
| 10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) | -0.95 | -0.45 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.78 | -0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Disclaimer
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